"it will be a close by-election"

Ealing Southall

In many ways this election is a win-win for Labour. If they lose now, they get rid of Sharma and inject some new blood into the area and reclaim the seat at the General Election (when boundary changes make it much easier for them). If they win, then they win I guess.

It is more a double-edged sword for the Tories. They’ve woken up to the ethnic minority vote and got their hands dirty (building experience for next time). And they have a dynamic new candidate on their hands who may be good for another seat even if he loses here.

But whether Tony Lit will want to do the hard slog and run to be selected as the Conservative candidate in seats around the country is another matter.
They can’t just parachute him in to another seat come the General Elections. And if they win then sooner or later their local Conservative association will be dogged by fierce factionalism and in-fighting given their recent recruits.

My feeling is that the Liberal Democrats will come out further than expected. They’ve firstly been leafleting and campaigning like mad. Secondly, their candidate, if not an old fogey or a young candidate, is a veteran and came second place last time with 11,000 votes. As long as Respect don’t bite too much into their anti-war vote, they should fare well.

I’m fairly certain Sharma will win, but it will be a close by-election.

Pickled Politics